Abstract
The article analyzes the US strategy in the nonproliferation field during three decades (in 1990s – 2018) and during the presidency of four US presidents (Bill Clinton, George Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump). The author considers the key guidelines of US nonproliferation strategy that are described in four Nuclear Posture Reviews (NPR) issued by each post-Cold War presidential administration. These documents describe the US nuclear policy in general, but the author focused on analysis of those their sections that were devoted to dealing with the risks of proliferation of nuclear weapons. The National Security Strategies of 1996 and 2002 were also analyzed in the article to clarify the nonproliferation aspects of US strategy that were not explained well in the published excerpts of the first two Nuclear Posture Reviews of presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush. As George Bush faced with the new challenges that required developing updated nonproliferation strategy like he terroristic acts on 11 September 2001, war in Iraq - the nonproliferation policy had to change too and focus more on preventing the terrorists from acquiring the nuclear bomb and nuclear materials. The last two NPRs of 2010 and 2018 were published fully and considered in the article as the primary source for understanding the nonproliferation policy of presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. All four post-Cold War presidential administrations faced with the new proliferation challenges, and the author examines how these new challenges were described in the US strategic documents and how the US nonproliferation strategy evolves. In addition, the article studies the practical implementation of the proclaimed nonproliferation strategies of four presidents and compares the efficiency of this implementation by each presidential administration. The author also assesses the consequences of realizing the US nonproliferation strategy for the international security and its influence of the future development of the global nonproliferation regime.
Highlights
The rise of the terrorist threat led to concerns that nuclear weapons or related materials might be available to the non-state actors
Nonproliferation is one of the top priorities of the US foreign and security policy, but effective implementing this policy often depends on a good strategy
The strategic documents did not always pay enough attention to the nonproliferation issues. This is true for the first Nuclear Posture Review that was issued by the administration of president Bill Clinton in 1994
Summary
As this article focuses on the strategic thinking of the US presidential administrations regarding the policy to reduce the risks of the nuclear proliferation, it was mainly used native documents and sources. The US strategy regarding the nonproliferation is mainly described in the strategic documents, which are called «Nuclear Postures Review Reports» (NPR). This type of the documents was not published during the Cold War due to the high tensions between the two nuclear superpowers and extreme secrecy of the nuclear planning. The fourth NPR in the US post-Cold War history was issued in 2018 by the Trump administration, which published the full and detailed text of the document [7]. As the paper compares the strategic guidelines written in the documents with their practical implementation, it is essential to compare declared and real policy of the US administrations
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