The Evolution of the Pre-Modern Demographic Regime in Japan

Abstract

The concept of natural fertility has totally altered the view of longterm changes in demographic conditions. This has proved particularly the case in the area of historical demography. It has become widely appreciated that there are trends in natural fertility before the transition: typically natural fertility increases substantially. Possibly the most intriguing finding to emerge in this context is that at least in Europe and Asia nuptiality patterns and natural fertility evolved simultaneously adusting to each other. Evidence is presented in tables which suggests that at least for the European and Northern Asian cultural areas the components of fertility adjust to each other before the modern fertility transition began. Focus in this discussion is on a large body of hitherto unused data assembled for Japan in order to substantiate that there was an evolution in the Japanese pre-modern demographic regime similar to that of Korea and Taiwan and to provide evidence for a tentative explanation of this evolutionary process. The thrust of the argument is that in societies where descent is patrilineal the nuptiality of men adusts to the ability to acquire capital assets and perpetuation of family lines forces marriage ages of women to adjust to natural fertility and the risks of infant deaths. Overall the results lend substantial support to the proposition that nuptiality and marital fertility in Meiji Japan evolved with a pattern similar to that for Taiwan and Korea. The Tokugawa evidence the Yamanashi Census of 1879 and the police count population figures for 1908 all lend support to this assertion. A behavioral explanation is provided of how natural fertility is determined and evidence is produced in support of this hypothesis that as the standard of living the nutritional intake the medical care and public health measures of the Meiji Japanese improved families adjusted their sexual and breastfeeding practices so that as a result natural fertility increased substantially. As this occurred the age at 1st marriage for women rose and the proportion fecund among women married dropped. The evidence is largely indirect as it is primarily cross-sectional. The data concerning the natural rate of population increase support the thesis for it indicates that areas with high natural fertility and/or infant mortality rates despite the generally lower proportions married associated with these areas are characterized by a relatively high natural rate of population increase and vice versa. The evidence marshalled for the inter-war period lends substantial support to the general hypothesis involving the demographic adjustment mechanism and life cycle of the peasant family.