The Evolution of Public Perceptions of Adenauer as a Historic Leader: Test of a Mathematical Model of Attitude Change

Abstract

The frequent association of memorable political leaders with formative political events is the source of the classic dispute over whether great men make great events or whether the events are themselves the conditions of great leadership. The long controversy over the role of leaders in history has often fastened on periods of fundamental political change—the creation of new states, major wars, changes of regime. Washington, Bolivar, Cavour, and Nehru are studied as fathers of their countries, Lincoln and Churchill as great war leaders, Lenin and Mao as architects of major revolutions, Ataturk and DeGaulle as founders of new regimes.We are generally aware that such men, regardless of their personal distinctions, might well have escaped the notice of historians, had they lived in normal times; indeed each passed substantial periods of his life as a minor politician, local military commander, occasional writer, or unheeded prophet. We are also aware that the place of such men in history is the product of the interpretation—and reinterpretation—of succeeding generations of historians. On the other hand, we know relatively little about how these men were viewed by their leading contemporaries, less about the attitudes toward them of the general publics of their time, and almost nothing about the development of public attitudes toward them during their lifetime. Only with respect to the political leaders of our own time do we begin to have data which permits us to investigate the development of public perceptions of great leaders. In this way we can fill the gap in our knowledge of the complex and reciprocal relationship between historic political leaders and the members of their political communities who, in following them, gave them the possibility of shaping history.