Abstract
Was w?re gewesen, wenn...? Evaluation sozialstaatlicher Ma? nahmen mithilfe kontrafaktischer Modelle?. The evaluation of welfare state performance is an important issue in times of tight government budgets, high unemployment and growing inequality. Policymakers and taxpayers want to know if a specific programme has led to the intended effect, and with no ex cessive waste of resources. For such evaluations to be thorough and robust, ap propriate methods and the right counterfactuals are important. It is difficult to say what would have happened if a certain policy had not been implemented or implemented differently. This holds even more for the impact on a single indi vidual than for aggregate results. This article will highlight some examples and possibilities of how to deal with counterfactual questions in the context of the Hartz reforms, probably the most far-reaching welfare state and labour market changes in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. Furthermore this reform was the first big attempt of systematic welfare state evaluation in Ger many.
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