The European Expansion Toward Middle East Conflicts and Economic Convergence (2000–2010)

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze whether sufficient conditions can be met for Turkey and the Balkan and Caucasian Republics to achieve future integration within Europe because Turkey's accession to the European Union (EU) would provide opportunities for further enlargement of the Union toward the East. The paper is developed through three steps: In the first place we will select a group of countries belonging to the Southeastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and the Near-East, which could fulfill at medium term the requirements established by the European Councils of Copenhagen (1993), Madrid (1995), and Helsinki (1999) to be members of the EU in a future. Second, starting from the period 2000–2010, we estimate the possible existence of economic convergence in terms of real per capita income between these countries and the current EU at 27 members. Finally, we analyze whether the entrance of some of those countries in the EU could help to solve some local existing conflicts in the area, especially in the Middle-East. For the above-mentioned purposes, first, we have selected potential candidates for a future adhesion to EU among the current official candidates, other countries that have already demanded the adhesion, and those other countries in the area for which the EU applies the neighborhood policy. We have selected these countries by using a multicriteria analysis. Second, following Quah (1996), we test the possible existence of several steady states in the EU at 27 members, and hence the possibility of Clubs Convergence in Europe. Also by using the Barro (1991) and Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) models, we test Absolute and Conditional Economic Convergence among all EU-27 countries and between each potential candidate, weighted by surface and population, with the EU-27, during the period 2000–2010. The obtained results indicate the existence of Clubs Convergence in EU-27 because at least there are two steady states. Multicriteria analysis indicates that the following countries fulfill the requirements of the EU at medium term: Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Lebanon. The convergence analysis indicates Conditional Convergence between the selected countries and the EU. The research limitations are that this paper only considers countries belonging to this area. The EU expansion could solve conflicts in the European–Asian border, like Cyprus, Nagorno-Karabakh, Kurdish, and other Middle East conflicts. Lebanon is a country that clearly belongs to Asia, but notwithstanding it appears as a possible candidate to enter in the EU considering our multicriteria analysis.