Abstract

Since the Transitional Federal Institutions were established after the 2002 Nairobi Conference, the situation in Somalia has seen two drastic about-turns – in opposite directions. In June 2006, starting out from Mogadishu, the Islamic Courts rapidly extended their control over most of south-central Somalia. Now, after the Ethiopean military intervention, the Transitional Government is trying to establish itself in the capital and to effectively exercise its formal authority for the first time. But the military defeat of the Courts has not solved the problems that initially made their success possible. Only reconciliation can create real stability and the European Union can contribute to achieving this. A peaceful and stable Horn of Africa is in the EU's interest, given the risks of it becoming a breeding ground for Al Qaeda-like organisations and a source of immigration. Somalia could also become a test case for solving the problems of a failed state by peaceful means, and an example of the EU's willingness and ability to have an effective dialogue with the Islamic world. Success in Somalia would strengthen the EU as a regional player with Arab and Muslim countries.

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