Abstract
The global energy mix is undergoing an accelerating transformation driven by new resources, novel technologies, and climate change-related commitments. Changes in the use and availability of energy resources have affected fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) trade patterns. Some economies enjoy increasing energy independence, whereas others become more dependent on imports to satisfy their energy needs. Using 2000–2018 United Nations Commodity trade and International Energy Agency energy- and monetary-flow data, we examine the evolution of the international network of energy flows to reveal new patterns and understand their energy security implications. Our work explores how the growth in the U.S. unconventional resources, European Union renewable energy, China’s natural gas consumption, and changes in other country energy flows affect economy positions and trade-network connectivity. Testing the small-world property helps us understand the diffusion of new technologies, including energy-demand electrification and renewable energy adoption. A modified energy-security index is introduced to highlight the interplay between fuel type and trade partner diversification and domestic supply and consumption balance. The results provide insights about the energy transition and its effect on the international network of energy flows and energy security.
Highlights
The past two decades have brought dramatic changes to the energy landscape
We evaluate the changes in energy security caused by the energy transition, e.g., changes in the fuel use, and the growth in the domestic production, resulting in the energy trade evolution
We provide insights about the evolution of individual fuel and altogether fossil energy trade, paying particular attention to the changes associated with the production and consumption energy mix changes accompanying the energy transition and adoption of technologies
Summary
Technological advances helped untap abundant unconventional natural gas and oil resources and led to nearly exponential growth in renewable energy production. The shares of unconventional resources in global natural gas and oil production have grown from less than 1% in 2000 to about 15% and 12%, respectively, in 2019 [1]. Over the same period of time, the supply of renewable energy has increased by about 50%, reaching 5% of global total primary energy consumption [2]. The process referred to as “the energy transition” aims to decrease carbon and other emissions, mitigating climate-change issues. Developments in battery and other energy-storage technologies, adoption of circular economy principles, and employment of innovative materials are among the key drivers behind the decreasing energy intensity of global GDP
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