The energy revolution in the USA and the pre-salt reserves in Brazil: Risks and opportunities for the Brazilian petrochemical industry

Abstract

The petrochemical industry is known for its interrelations with the oil industry. In recent years the world has witnessed the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and an associated surge in demand for petroleum and oil products, alongside the emergence of alternative sources of oil and natural gas to those produced by OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and Russia, such as Brazil’s pre-salt reserves and shale gas in the United States. The US is undergoing a veritable energy revolution with its use of unconventional oil and natural gas production techniques in low-permeability reservoirs, chiefly shale gas. Brazil’s prospects as an international player are on the rise thanks to the exploration of oil and natural gas from its pre-salt reserves, which could lead to exports of petroleum of over 2 million barrels/day. All these movements have a direct influence on the petrochemical industry. This article aims to foster discussions about the risks and opportunities facing the Brazilian petrochemical industry with the exploration of oil and natural gas in Brazil and unconventional sources in the United States. Systemic thinking and scenario-based planning were used as the basis for the analysis.