The end of business-as-usual? – A critical review of the air transport industry's climate strategy for 2050 from the perspectives of Degrowth

Alexandra Köves,Zoltán Bajmócy

doi:10.1016/j.spc.2021.10.010

Abstract

In discourses around sustainability, increasing eco-efficiency through technological developments are highly popular as they promise the continuation of business-as-usual and appeal to economic actors whose primary motivation is to follow the paths of economic growth. Dominant narratives and visions about the bioeconomy also fit into this line of thinking by giving a central role to technological problem solving and decoupling, the opportunities of sustaining economic growth and advancing the extended use of renewable resources. In 2020, major actors of the air transport industry under the frame of the Air Transport Action Group issued Waypoint 2050 a global, sector wide strategy to tackle climate change and halve CO 2 emissions by the middle of this century. As we will establish in this paper, their sustainability strategies strongly rely on bioeconomic solutions such as sustainable air fuels and renewable energy, while their need to grow remains unquestioned. However, achieving sustainability is a wicked problem that needs clumsy solutions. And clumsy solutions only come about when highly different viewpoints are put on the table. Degrowth perspectives can most certainly enrich dialogues on sustainability transitions such as the current challenges the air transport industry faces. This paper aims to provide a critical review of Waypoint 2050, underlining why it is important for economists and policymakers to shift their understanding from pursuing endless growth toward Degrowth perspectives. We use the main arguments of Degrowth to interpret and analyse the air transport industry's climate strategy and reframe the discussions around sustainable aviation. Our goal is to show that Degrowth approaches can contribute to positively influencing the discourses of air transport by assessing the consequences of the sector and its reform strategy through diverse lenses. The discourse reflected in this paper would also be appropriate when applied to other top carbon producing industries and our assessment of air transport is not a directed criticism but rather an example on why business-as-usual scenarios need to be revisited.

Highlights

In discourses around sustainability, concepts that promise to increase eco-efficiency through technological developments are highly popular
The reluctance to face potential slowing of growth rates is well emulated in the way the document treats the potential long-term impacts of Covid-19 (ATAG, 2020a, p. 17): “Post-Covid-19 revision of long-term growth suggests that the central traffic forecast used for Waypoint 2050 is around 16% lower in 2050 than it was in a pre-Covid world
While not all the proposed solutions of Waypoint 2050 rely on the bioeconomy, we found, that the overall approach of the document corresponds strongly to narratives that dominate bioeconomy discussions

Summary

Introduction

Concepts that promise to increase eco-efficiency through technological developments are highly popular This popularity stems from the promise that humankind will be able to tackle the problems of climate change and environmental degradation while maintaining the impetus of current economic and social systems and continue businessas-usual. Alternative narratives and visions of the bioeconomy do exist (Bugge et al, 2016; Bauer, 2018; Vivien et al, 2019) and are often advocated by citizens or environmental professionals ((Hausknost et al, 2017); Vainio et al, 2019) These alternative narratives revolve around ideas of strict ecological limits to growth, sufficiency and the bioeconomy not being an “endless frontier”. They appear as counterexpertise rather than an ongoing policy agenda (Vivien et al, 2019 )

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Discussion

Conclusion