The Elusive Effect of Political Trust on Participation: Participatory Resource or (Dis)incentive?

Abstract

Although political trust has long been linked to political participation, its effects remain elusive. Trust in political institutions may enhance levels of participation, diminish political engagement, or yield distinct effects depending on the activity. This article examines these diverging effects through a rational choice framework, with which we theorize and test whether political trust functions as a resource or a (dis)incentive to participate. Specifically, we assess the direct effects of political trust on intended participation and its moderating effects on outcome-related motivations and activity type. To this end, we use a factorial survey experiment in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom to isolate the effects of outcome-related motivations and to disentangle participation from the effectiveness of action and the effect of activity type, factors that remain confounded in existing survey measures of participation. Overall, our findings suggest that political trust operates as a (dis)incentive, rather than a resource spurring participation.