The Electoral Effects of Offshoring-Induced Mass-Layoffs: Germany in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

How does globalization’s impact on the labor market affect political preferences? This study takes up the strategy of a recent contribution (Margalit 2011a) and studies the local electoral effects of regional job losses due to offshoring. By applying the analytical strategy to German national elections in 2005 and 2009, it studies whether and how the finding on U.S. presidential elections travels to other contexts. Theoretically, the contribution adds a perspective suggested by previous research on the individual level political consequences of the globalization-labor market link that addresses the likely social policy preferences of globalization’s losers. Preliminary empirical results indicate no support for the notion that incumbent parties are electorally hurt by offshoring. There is also only very weak evidence for a policy-based effect with left parties locally gaining from offshoring.