The Electoral Dynamics of the Belfast Agreement

Abstract

One of the abiding memories of the referendum count in May 1998 was Rev. Ian Paisley and his son Ian pushing their way out of the King’s Hall in Belfast to the accompaniment of chants of ‘dinosaur, dinosaur, dinosaur’ from supporters of the newer unionist parties. The expectation was that a new era of politics was beginning: a new political settlement had been agreed and it was expected that a new cleavage of pro-Agreement versus anti-Agreement would emerge and persist into the future. Nine years later the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) had fallen to third and fourth position, Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) had disappeared and Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) was reduced to one seat, but Rev. Ian Paisley as leader of the largest party was First Minister in partnership with Martin McGuinness deputy leader of the second largest party, Sinn Fein, an outcome which would have appeared incredulous in 1998. The aim of this chapter is to follow the electoral dynamics of how this came about; to attempt an explanation derived from political events, survey and other evidence. The argument is that the key period was from 1999 to 2003: Sinn Fein overtook SDLP in the 2001 general election; Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) overtook Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) in the second Assembly election in 2003. Most attention will be paid to this period for it set a course for the DUP/Sinn Fein deal in 2007.