The Effects of the NBA COVID Bubble on the NBA Playoffs: A Case Study for Home-Court Advantage

Abstract

The 2020 NBA playoffs were played inside of a bubble at Disney World because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This meant that there were no fans in attendance, games were played on neutral courts and no traveling for teams. In theory, these conditions should remove home-court advantage from the games. This setting generated discussion and concern, as analysts and fans debated the possible effects it may have on the outcome of games. Home-court advantage has historically played an influential role in NBA playoff series outcomes. The 2020 playoffs provided a unique opportunity to study the effects of the bubble and home-court advantage by comparing the 2020 season with the seasons in the past. While many factors contribute to the outcome of games, points scored is the deciding factor of who wins. Thus, scoring is the primary focus of this study. The specific measures of interest are team scoring totals and team shooting percentage on two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws. Comparing these measures for home teams and away teams in 2020 vs. 2017-2019 shows that the 2020 playoffs favored away teams more than usual, particularly with two-point shooting and total scoring. KEYWORDS: NBA; NBA Covid; NBA Bubble; Homecourt Advantage