The effects of climate change and forest management on forest carbon sequestration potential

Abstract

The carbon sequestration potential of forest ecosystems is influenced by various factors, including climate change and forest management. Climate change directly impacts the rate of forest growth and the accumulation of biomass. Effective forest management measures could enhance the structural integrity of forests, thereby improving the carbon sequestration capacity and adaptability to climate change of forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of these factors on future carbon sequestration and its potential of forests remain unclear. There is a pressing scientific need to focus on whether future climate change will increase carbon sequestration potential, and how forest management should be carried out in the future, as part of the current efforts to develop nature-based climate solutions. This study focuses on the forests of Northeast China, located in a mid-latitude zone sensitive to global climate changes, possessing abundant forest resources and serving as one of China's primary carbon reservoirs, where extensive forest management has been implemented over the past decades. We assessed the carbon sequestration potential of Northeast China's forests under future climate change and forest management strategies. Specifically, we utilized multi-source data (such as forest inventory and remote sensing data), coupled with ecosystem process-based model LINKAGES and forest landscape model LANDIS PRO, to predict the forest succession and carbon storage dynamics of Northeast China during the 21st century. The study conducted multi-scale validation of the simulation results through multi-source data, thereby enhancing the accuracy of the model simulations. Then, we estimated the future forest above-ground carbon sequestration potential and quantified the impacts of climate change and forest management. The results suggested: (1) The simulation of the current spatial distribution of above-ground carbon storage and age structure in Northeast China's forests aligns closely with remote sensing products and inventory data; (2) Considering only forest succession, the above-ground carbon sequestration is projected to peak in 2060, with the rate of carbon sequestration reaching its apex in 2025-2030 at 0.08Pg C·a-1; (3) Climate change is likely to enhance the carbon sequestration potential and rate of Northeast China's forests, but to a limited extent, with an increase of 7.3% and 13.6% under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively; (4) It remains essential to continue forest management practices in the future to address the challenges posed by climate change.