Abstract
The impact of differences in welfare funding levels and economic opportunity at the state level on interstate migration of low-income families is determined. The data set is derived from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey for the years 1979 to 1990, inclusive. Newly estimated descriptive welfare statistics permit detailed state level analysis. The decision to migrate is modeled as a binary discrete choice decision which is estimated by means of a probit procedure using maximum likelihood techniques. The poor are found to be attracted to states with greater economic opportunity in all cases and to avoid high welfare states, with the exception of single female household heads, who actually participate in the new state's welfare system. Even in this case, the effect on migration is relatively small compared to the effect of superior economic opportunities and small in absolute magnitude as well.
Published Version
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