The Effect of Traffic and Road Conditions to the Fatality Rates on Rural Roads in Eastern Indonesia

Abstract

This paper presents the effects of traffic and road conditions on accident rates on rural interurban roads in Eastern Indonesia. The survey was conducted in 7 provinces on 35 sections of roads. However, only 18 sections of roads were able to be used in constructing the accident rates model. Multivariate regression with Poisson error was chosen as the best models and it concluded that the proportion of motorcycles, roughness index, road width, and average speed contribute significantly to the fatality rate in terms of fatalities over 100 million vehicle km traveled. It is suggested that limiting the number of motorcycles will have a greater impact on road safety. Increasing proportion of motorcycles by 10% will increase fatality rate by 30%. Reducing road width by 0.5 m, increasing average speed by 5 kph and increasing IRI index by 1 will increase fatality rate by 8.50%, 3.50% and 2.80%, respectively.