Abstract
The Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is the operational storm surge model of the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Previous studies have found that the SLOSH model estimates storm surges with an accuracy of ±20%. In this study, through hindcasts of historical storms, we assess the accuracy of the SLOSH model for four coastal regions in the Northeastern United States. We investigate the potential to improve this accuracy through modification of the wind field representation. We modify the surface background wind field, the parametric wind profile, and the maximum wind speed based on empirical, physical, and observational data. We find that on average the SLOSH model underestimates maximum storm surge heights by 22%. The modifications to the surface background wind field and the parametric wind profile have minor impacts; however, the effect of the modification to maximum wind speed is significant—it increases the variance in the SLOSH model estimates of maximum storm surges, but improves its accuracy overall. We recommend that observed values of maximum wind speed be used in SLOSH model simulations when possible.
Highlights
Storm surges, i.e., coastal floods, pose the greatest threat to life and property loss during severe hurricanes in the United States [1,2,3,4]
We investigate the effect of the surface wind field representation on storm surge predictions of the SLOSH model
The surface wind stress is one of the most important components of hurricane storm surge modeling, and there are many methods of representing the surface wind field used in its approximation
Summary
I.e., coastal floods, pose the greatest threat to life and property loss during severe hurricanes in the United States [1,2,3,4]. The prediction of these hazards is vital for preventing casualties and property damage. One of the primary sources of uncertainty in storm surge modeling is the atmospheric forcing, i.e., the hurricane itself. When storm surges are hindcasted using detailed hydrodynamic models and accurate representations of the surface wind field, the simulated hydrodynamics are effectively replicated (e.g., [10,13,14,15,16]). Minimal computational cost of the numerical storm surge model is requisite
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