An Automated Operational Storm Surge Prediction System for the National Hurricane Center

Abstract

An automated real-time operational storm surge prediction system for the Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, which is run operationally during tropical cyclone events, has been developed for the National Hurricane Center (NHC). AutoSurge automates and accelerates operational workflows, computes storm track input parameters with greater accuracy, eliminates labor-intensive tasks, and prevents human input error, giving storm surge forecasters additional time to conduct model analyses, generate forecast guidance products, calculate model output statistics and assess model results. Shortly after synoptic times, the input wind parameters for SLOSH are extracted from the NHC’s best track, official track and intensity forecasts, and the NHC track and intensity models, enabling AutoSurge to run off any and all of the guidance available from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. AutoSurge automatically generates a vast array of guidance products from SLOSH model output, including the maximum envelope of water and the temporal evolution of surge in areas that could be impacted by the storm. AutoSurge is currently undergoing rigorous testing in NHC’s Storm Surge Unit and will likely be deployed for operational use during the 2012 hurricane season.