The effect of the industrial structure and haze pollution: spatial evidence for China.

Abstract

Based on provincial data pertaining to China from 2003 to 2018, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the industrial structure on haze pollution by constructing static and dynamic spatial econometric models. The marginal contribution of this paper lies in the analysis based on two indicators: the upgrading and rationalization of the industrial structure. The results indicate that: at the overall level, haze pollution in China exhibits a significant positive spatial correlation and remains relatively stable, upgrading and rationalization of the industrial structure can significantly reduce haze pollution, the control variables of technological progress and trade openness yield obvious haze reduction effects, and the market-oriented haze reduction effect is better that of the government behavior. In terms of the robustness, the effect of industrial structure upgrading is not obvious in the eastern regions and even aggravates haze pollution in the central and western regions, while industrial structure rationalization can play a role in haze reduction in all regions. Industrial structure upgrading and rationalization achieve better effects in the southern region but can aggravate haze pollution in the northern region. Based on the results of the time period test, the effect is very obvious at the first stage but not that at the second stage because of the diminishing marginal effect. The robustness results of the replacement of the core variables and dynamic spatial Durbin model further validate the empirical results in this paper. Finally, according to the empirical results, we propose corresponding policy implications.