Abstract
Drawing upon seven years of police calls for service data (2014–2020), this study examined the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on calls involving persons with perceived mental illness (PwPMI) using a Bayesian Structural Time Series. The findings revealed that PwPMI calls did not increase immediately after the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Instead, a sustained increase in PwPMI calls was identified in August 2020 that later became statistically significant in October 2020. Ultimately, the analysis revealed a 22% increase in PwPMI calls during the COVID-19 pandemic than would have been expected had the pandemic not taken place. The delayed effect of the pandemic on such calls points to a need for policymakers to prioritize widely accessible mental health care that can be deployed early during public health emergencies thus potentially mitigating or eliminating the need for increased police intervention, as was the case here.
Highlights
In March of 2020, the World Health Organization declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020)
While the only previous inquiry by Lersch (2020) found that persons with perceived mental illness (PwPMI) calls decreased in Detroit, Michigan, their study design was largely descriptive in nature and only drew upon data through April 27, 2020
The findings revealed that between March and July 2020, there was no difference between the observed number of PwPMI calls and what would have been expected had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred
Summary
In March of 2020, the World Health Organization declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020) Such major public health emergencies have the ability to foster feelings of fear, uncertainty, and loneliness due to increased risk of morbidity and death; public health measures meant to curb virus transmission, such as physical distancing, lockdowns, or quarantines; as well as possible or experienced unemployment, among other reasons (Fitzpatrick et al, 2020; Moreno et al, 2020; Rajkumar, 2020; Vigo et al, 2020; Vindegaard & Benros, 2020; Xiong et al, 2020).
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