Abstract
This research examines the various methods of electoral districting in the post-2000 Census years in order to determine the variation in competitiveness for subsequent elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. The evidence from this period suggests that “backup” and independent commissions resulted in more competitive districts, as measured by margin of victory and challenger win rate, after controlling for partisan and contextual factors.
Highlights
Most advocates for electoral reform in the U.S emphasize the lack of competition in U.S House races, and subsequently argue that redistricting commissions are the optimal way to remedy the problem of incumbency advantage in U.S House elections
In the post-2000 round of redistricting, 28 states used the traditional legislative process to draw their congressional districts (261 districts); three used an independent backup committee when the legislature failed to draw suitable districts (CT, IA, IN [19 districts]), three used an advisory committee (NY, OH, RI [49 districts]), two used a partisan commission (NJ, HI [15 districts]), three states had independent commissions (AZ, ID, WA [19 districts]), seven states only have one district (AK, DE, MT, ND, SD, VT, WY), and seven states had districts drawn by state or federal courts (ME, MN, NM, OK, OR, SC, TX (Note 1) [65 districts])
The past decade has provided an opportunity to assess the impact of the various types of redistricting commissions, and this analysis supports the hypothesis that commission-led restricting may lead to closer U.S House races
Summary
Most advocates for electoral reform in the U.S emphasize the lack of competition in U.S House races, and subsequently argue that redistricting commissions are the optimal way to remedy the problem of incumbency advantage in U.S House elections. Gary Jacobson notes in The Politics of Congressional Elections (2009) that competition in US house races is declining, as measured by incumbency strength, reelection rates, and margins of victory. As Mann (2005, 92) notes, “....recent congressional contests suffer from an unusually high degree of incumbent safety, (and) a precipitous decline in competitiveness.”. Groups such as Common Cause (2013), the Brennan Center for Justice (2013), and the Annenberg Center (2013), argue that independent commissions are more likely to promote competitiveness and less partisan gerrymandering. By the time of the 2010 census, eleven U.S states had adopted a type of commission, as compared to the more traditional legislative method, to conduct their redistricting process - representing 25% of all U.S House districts
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