The effect of recent tax changes on taxable income: Evidence from a new panel of tax returns

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AbstractThis paper estimates the elasticity of taxable income to the net‐of‐tax share using a panel of tax returns that follows a random sample of taxpayers from 1999 to 2005, spanning the EGTRRA 2001 and JGTRRA 2003 tax changes. Results suggest that the elasticity of taxable income to the current year's net‐of‐tax share lies between 0.3 and 0.4 overall, and that the elasticity of a broader measure of income falls between 0.1 and 0.2 overall, with substantially higher elasticities for taxpayers reporting income in excess of $500,000. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.