The Effect of Rainfall and Temperature Patterns on Childhood Linear Growth in the Tropics: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Despite existing research on child undernutrition in the tropics, a comprehensive understanding of how weather patterns impact childhood growth remains limited. This study summarizes and estimates the effect of rainfall and temperature patterns on childhood linear growth among under-fives in the tropics. A total of 41 out of 829 studies were considered based on preset inclusion criteria. Standardized regression coefficients (β) were used to estimate effect sizes, which were subsequently pooled, and forest plots were generated to visually represent the effect size estimates along with their 95% confidence intervals. Of the total reports, 28 and 13 research articles were included in the narrative synthesis and meta-analysis, respectively. The studies establish that patterns in rainfall and temperature either increase or decrease childhood linear growth and the risk of stunting. An increase in every one standard deviation of rainfall results in a 0.049 standard deviation increase in linear growth (β = 0.049, 95% CI: 0.024 to 0.073). This positive association is likely mediated by various factors. In countries where agriculture is heavily dependent on rainfall, increased precipitation can lead to higher crop yields which could in turn result in improved food security. The improved food security positively impacts childhood nutrition and growth. However, the extent to which these benefits are realized can vary depending on moderating factors such as location and socio-economic status. Temperature pattern showed a negative correlation with linear growth, where each standard deviation increase resulted in a decrease in linear growth by 0.039 standard deviations, with specific impacts varying by regional climates (β = −0.039, 95% CI: −0.065 to −0.013). Additionally, our meta-analysis shows a small but positive relationship of childhood stunting with temperature pattern in western Africa (β = 0.064, 95% CI: 0.035, 0.093). This association is likely due to temperature patterns’ indirect effects on food security and increased disease burden. Thus, the intricate interaction between weather patterns and childhood linear growth requires further research to distinguish the relationship considering other factors in the global tropics. While our findings provide valuable insights, they are primarily based on observational studies from sub-Saharan Africa and may not be generalizable to other tropical regions.