The Effect of ’One China’ Policies of Foreign States on the International Status of Taiwan

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article investigates the cumulative effect of ‘One China’ policies of foreign states on the international status of Taiwan. It argues that these policies have come to constitute a global diplomatic framework marginalizing Taiwan legally, institution- ally, and politically, turning it into a de facto state with only limited international rights. Still, adhering to the notion of ‘One China’ is Taiwan’s most viable option for maintaining its de facto independence. Any unilateral attempt to alter Taiwan’s interna- tional status can be expected to result in Taiwan facing main- land China alone. This is not simply because of the latter’s power and geopolitical weight: International society has been oppos- ing unilateral changes of statehood for more than 60 years. Since at the root of cross-strait antagonisms is the lack of an agreed-upon ‘One China’ framework, the most favorable path forward for Taiwan is a comprehensive long-term bargain with mainland China that would expressly define and stabilize it. The framework should be grounded in the shared feature of the constitutional status quo on both sides of the strait – that there is, legally, one Chinese state.