The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Non-Performing Loans: A Time Series Analysis for Turkey

Abstract

With the 2008 Global Crisis, Non-performing loans (NPLs) has dramatically increased in both developed and developing countries. The excessive and uncontrolled increase in NPLs caused serious deterioration in the banking system. Particularly, in the countries, such as Turkey, where the banking system has a quite significant place in financial system, the deterioration in the banking system affects not only financial markets but also the economy in a negative way. In this research paper, the association between exchange rate, interest rate, total loan volume and production (output), which are macroeconomic variables expressed as external factors in the literature, and NPLs is investigated for 2008:01-2017:12 period in Turkey. Unrestricted error correction model (UECM) and boundary test approach with the scope of ARDL analysis developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied as an analysis method. Based on the analysis results, it is found that these macroeconomic variables and NPLs are cointegrated. Moreover, there is an economical and statistically significant relationship between interest rate and total loan volume and NPLs in both long and short term. In other words, it is determined that if interest rate and total loan volume increases, NPLs also move in the same direction.