The Effect of HIV Viral Control on the Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Veterans With Hepatitis C and HIV Coinfection

Abstract

HIV increases the risk of progression to hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis among individuals coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). However, the impact of HIV-related immune suppression on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently unknown. We used the Veterans Affairs HIV Clinical Case Registry to identify patients with HIV infection between 1985 and 2010 and HCV coinfection (positive HCV RNA or genotype test) between 1995 and 2010. The outcome was incident HCC as indicated by International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification code (87% positive predictive value). Patients with HCV monoinfection were included as a comparison group for HCC incidence. Age-adjusted HCC incidence rates were calculated for the coinfected cohort and HCV monoinfected cohort. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each risk factor on the time to HCC diagnosis in the coinfected cohort. There were 66,991 veterans with HIV; 8563 had at least 1 positive HCV RNA test, and 234 of these developed HCC. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate of HCC in monoinfected patients was 2.99/1000 person-years vs. 4.44/1000 person-years in coinfected patients. In patients with coinfection, presence of cirrhosis (HR = 4.88; 95% CI: 3.30 to 7.21), HIV diagnosis >2002 (HR = 4.65; 95% CI: 2.70 to 8.02), and a recent low CD4 cell count <200 (HR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.20 to 2.45) were associated with an increased risk for HCC. The risk of HCC in HCV- and HIV-coinfected veteran men was higher than HCV monoinfection. Diagnosis of cirrhosis and low recent CD4 cell count were the most important predictors of developing HCC in this group.