The Effect of Fossil Fuel Prices on Flexible CO2 Capture Operation

Abstract

Coal consumption for electricity generation produces over 30% of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but coal is also an available, secure, and low cost fuel that is currently utilized to meet roughly half of America’s electricity demand. While the world transitions from the existing fossil fuel-based energy infrastructure to a sustainable energy system, carbon dioxide capture and sequestration (CCS) will be a critical technology that will allow continued use of coal in an environmentally acceptable manner. Techno-economic analyses are useful in understanding the costs and benefits of CCS. However, typical techno-economic analyses of post-combustion CO2 capture systems assume continuous operation at a high CO2 removal, which could use 30% of pre-capture electricity output and require new capacity installation to replace the output lost to CO2 capture energy requirements. This study, however, considers the inherent flexibility in post-combustion CO2 capture systems by modeling power plants that vary CO2 capture energy requirements in order to increase electricity output when economical under electricity market conditions. A first-order model of electricity dispatch and a competitive electricity market is used to investigate flexible CO2 capture in response to hourly electricity demand variations. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electric grid is used as a case study to compare plant and grid performance, economics, and CO2 emissions in scenarios without CO2 capture to those with flexible or inflexible CO2 capture systems. Flexible CO2 capture systems can choose how much CO2 to capture based on the competition between CO2 and electricity prices and a desire to either minimize operating costs or maximize operating profits. Coal and natural gas prices have varying degrees of predictability and volatility, and the relative prices of these fuels have a major impact on power plant operating costs and the resulting plant dispatch sequence. Because the chosen operating point in a flexible CO2 capture system affects net power plant efficiency, fuel prices also influence which CO2 capture operating point may be the most economical and the resulting dispatch of power plants with CO2 capture. Several coal and natural gas price combinations are investigated to determine their impact on flexible CO2 capture operation and the resulting economic and environmental impacts at the power plant and electric grid levels. This study investigates the costs and benefits of flexible CO2 capture in a framework of a carbon-constrained future where the effects of major energy infrastructure changes on fuel prices are not entirely clear.