The effect of firm formation and growth on job creation in the United States

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the importance of new firm formation to economic growth. It begins by providing data that describe the United States as having had greater employment growth than most developed nations of the world over the last 25 years, and focuses upon why job growth in the United States has exceeded that of other nations. Job Creation by Firm Size. We first examine the data on the relative contribution of small and large firms to U.S. job growth. By summarizing research that is uniformly expressed in two-year periods and defines small firms as those with less than 100 employees, conclusive evidence emerges that small firms are the major sources of net new creation. Firm Entry/Exit Rates and Economic Growth. Further understanding of small firm job creation is obtained when we examine firm entry and exit data. Here we find that firm entry rates vary considerably from period to period (range: 10.4%–12.5%), whereas exit rates remain relatively stable from period to period (range: 9.6%–10.4%). Thus, variation in entrepreneurial activity—the formation of new firms—is the major cause of net increases in the number firms. In both the United States and the United Kingdom, net firm increases are positively related to overall economic activity. Firm Entry/Exit and Job Creation. Further exploration of this correlation can be conducted by examining job creation and loss defined by source: entries, expansions, exits, and contractions. The data for 1976 through 1984 shown here demonstrate that new entries account for 74.0% of the 50.8 million new jobs created. Expansions of existing firms accounted for 26.0%. Small firms (less than 500 employees) produced 54.6% of the entry jobs and 56.8% of the expansion jobs. On the other hand, job losses totaled 33.8 million, 79.0% due to exits and 21.0% to contractions. Small firms account for 53.6% of the jobs lost from exits and 47.8% of those lost from contractions. Overall, small firms account for 60.5% of the 17.0 million net new jobs. Given the data that show correlation between net firm formation rates and economic growth, the finding that entry rates vary more than exit rates, and the finding that new entries create most of the new jobs, it can be concluded that firm formation—especially small firm formation—is a significant factor in economic growth. Increases in small firm formation rates have a significant effect on net job creation. Schumpeter's Model and Observed Market Turbulance. Another finding from this data on job creation by entry, expansion, exit, and contraction is the large amount of job creation and destruction activity taking place. For the period studied, three jobs were created and two jobs destroyed for each net new job created. This describes a turbulent job market with many workers moving from job to job. The labor markets are much less stable that normally envisioned. This observed phenomenon fits well with Schumpeter's theory of capitalism; he proposes that capitalistic growth occurs because entrepreneurs use innovations to form new firms which enter existing markets. When successful, these growing new firms destroy existing market structures, causing decline of established firms while creating increased demand and producing overall economic growth. If Schumpeter is correct, one would expect to find high rates of firm formation and failure, and large numbers of jobs created by new firms, while many jobs are lost by exits and contractions of established firms. The findings reported here show this. Government Policy Affects on Entry/Exit. Our results also show that formation of small, new firms is a necessary requirement for economic growth. Historically, however, Government policy has not considered small firm entry as a central issue. Thus, government policies can and have had a negative effect on entry rates and therefore upon economic growth rates. Furthermore, high rates of new firm formation cause a great deal of turbulence in labor markets, with three jobs created and two lost for every one net new job. Such labor turbulence may be seen by policy makers as undesirable as it entails considerable worker movement from job to job. As such, policy makers have recently proposed policies to protect workers from job loss due to contractions and exits. However, such protection policies, as demonstrated in recent European experience, will also construct barriers to entrepreneurial entry. The result may be a decline in small firm entry and a decline in economic growth. Instead of protecting specific jobs, appropriate policies are those that facilitate movement of workers from job to job. Adequate unemployment compensation for short term unemployment, fully vested and portable pension plans, and retraining programs are examples of policies that allow the labor market to remain flexible while reducing the negative effect on those who lose jobs.