Abstract
A farmer’s decision on whether to control a pest is usually based on the perceived threat of the pest locally and the guidance of commercial advisors. Therefore, farmers in a region are often influenced by similar circumstances, and this can create a coordinated response for pest control that is effective at a landscape scale. This coordinated response is not intentional, but is an emergent property of the system. We propose a framework for understanding the intrinsic feedback mechanisms between the actions of humans and the dynamics of pest populations and demonstrate this framework using the European corn borer, a serious pest in maize crops. We link a model of the European corn borer and a parasite in a landscape with a model that simulates the decisions of individual farmers on what type of maize to grow. Farmers chose whether to grow Bt-maize, which is toxic to the corn borer, or conventional maize for which the seed is cheaper. The problem is akin to the snow-drift problem in game theory; that is to say, if enough farmers choose to grow Bt maize then because the pest is suppressed an individual may benefit from growing conventional maize. We show that the communication network between farmers’ and their perceptions of profit and loss affects landscape scale patterns in pest dynamics. We found that although adoption of Bt maize often brings increased financial returns, these rewards oscillate in response to the prevalence of pests.
Highlights
The European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) (ECB), a serious pest of maize, cost the American economy an estimated 1 billion US dollars annually at its worst in the early 1990s [1, 2]
Farmers in a region are often influenced by similar circumstances, and this can create a coordinated response
Farmers believe that the economics favor conventional seed; more than half of them believe that the price of Bt maize is too high to merit purchase [1, 5], if their crops have not recently been infested
Summary
The European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) (ECB), a serious pest of maize, cost the American economy an estimated 1 billion US dollars annually at its worst in the early 1990s [1, 2]. In 1996, Bt maize, a transgenic crop that expressed insecticidal proteins from the soil-dwelling bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis, was introduced for control of the pest. Farmers have had to choose whether to plant conventional or Bt maize (Fig 1). Their decisions rest on the economic viability of Bt, given that future infestations of ECB cannot be predicted. Farmers believe that the economics favor conventional seed; more than half of them believe that the price of Bt maize is too high to merit purchase [1, 5], if their crops have not recently been infested
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