The effect of economic stationary variables on the growth in per capita income in Iraq for the period (1990 - 2021) by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model

Abstract

This research is work to measure the effect of the economic stability variables represented by unemployment, inflation, economic growth and the Iraqi balance of payments on the growth of individual income by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model after conducting a series of tests to ensure that the model is free from standard problems and to ensure the stability of the series Such as unit root tests based on Philip-Perron test and tests of homogeneity, serial correlation and normal distribution of data (Jarque-Bera), and the study concluded that there is a long-term logical equilibrium relationship depending on the impact test of Bounds Test, and there is a correction relationship from the short to the long term At a speed of 22.6%, that is, complete equilibrium will occur within a period of approximately four and a half years, as the study showed that both inflation and the unemployment rate have a negative impact on the individual income rate and that the magic square of the role in the Iraqi economy is completely far from the ideal that I assumed as the role, especially in what The unemployment indicator.