The Effect of Decision Analysis on Power System Resilience and Economic Value During a Severe Weather Event

Abstract

Because of climate changes, natural disasters are becoming more serious. For instance, the intensity of typhoons has been increasing in recent years. Typhoons and other natural disasters have high-impact low-probability characteristics. Thus, procedures for preparing for natural disasters and increasing power system resilience are important issues. This article proposes an all-inclusive process for system operators to make decisions for enhancing power system resilience and economic value during a severe weather event. This process first considers the typhoon track, the fragility curve and the recovery time of transmission lines. After collecting these data, system simulations and a calculated resilience index are implemented according to cases with and without disaster prevention. Next, the probability threshold and calculated economic value index are obtained based on numerical weather prediction wind speeds and the cost-loss ratio. Finally, the two indexes are considered in combination to obtain the highest resilience with the greatest benefit. The proposed process helps system operators make decisions for appropriate preventive actions at the least cost. An actual Taiwan power system and a severe weather event are used as an example to demonstrate the proposed decision analysis. The simulation results indicate the feasibility of the proposed method, which can reduce potential risks caused by extreme weather events with the maximum economic benefits.