"İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ SÜRECİNDE HİDROMETEOROLOJİK AFETLER VE TAHMİN SİSTEMİ"

Abstract

"There are changes in the frequency, intensity, geographical distribution and duration of extreme weather and climate events, with the impact of global climate change. The increase in extreme weather and climate events will continue according to the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Accordingly, it is expected that there will be an increase in disasters caused by natural hazards. Although earthquakes are the most widely known nature-based disasters, disasters that occur due to severe and extreme meteorological events constitute a large part of nature-based disasters. As in the whole world, meteorological disasters have been occurring quite frequently in our country, which has large geographic and different climatic regions, and have resulted in serious losses of life and property during the recent periods. There has been a considerable increase in the number and the strength of meteorological disasters, especially after the 2000s. The transformation of severe and extreme meteorological events into disasters is a natural consequence of the failure of human systems to be prepared and take precautions against extreme weather and climate risks, as well as local or regional geographical factors such as incorrect settlement and incorrect land use practices. Experienced meteorological disasters and their consequences reveal the importance of considering forecasts and early warnings, being ready to overcome severe and extreme weather events before they turn into disasters, or even if they do, for the least possible damage, taking the right precautions in a timely manner. The prediction of atmospheric events has brought many conveniences because of the widespread use of High-Performance Computing Systems. With the prepared numerical weather prediction models, changes and atmospheric events that may occur in the atmosphere from minute to hour, from day to week can be predicted. It is also very important that the produced early warning products can be understandable by the public, as well as obtaining forecasts to reduce disaster hazards. Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), which is a forecasting and early warning institution, presents the meteorological forecasts and early warnings it has prepared to the information of all public and relevant public institutions/organizations and continues its activities as the first part of the disaster risk reduction chain."