THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE CULTIVATION AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT IN AL MUTHANNA GOVERNORATE

Abstract

The agricultural activity is strongly related to climate change, and this study relied on the data of the Samawah station for the period (1980-2018). An analysis of the annual rate of change in it and the change during the study period during the growth season of the wheat crop (November - April) For the elements of the climate and to know their general trend , The results of the study revealed that there are clear climatic changes that tend to increase the temperature (normal, maximum, and minimum), with a decrease in the actual solar brightness rates, which led to an increase in evaporation and evaporation - transpiration, and this leads to an increase in water consumption and water ration in the region. With a trend towards a decrease in the water deficit, which reflected negatively on the wheat crop, As the results of the statistical analysis showed a strong direct correlation between the amount of wheat crop production, the area planted by the crop, and the normal temperature rate. There is a strong positive relationship between actual water ration, the maximum temperature, wind speed and evaporation – transpiration . It is clear through multiple linear regression models of the quantity of production and the pure water regulator that the models are positively intersected with the vertical axis. The tests (t, f) were conducted on him with a significant level (99%). The study revealed that the value of R2 for the most influential and explanatory climate elements on the dependent variable in the region reached (82, 99%).