The econophysical model of innovation diffusion

Abstract

Analysis and evaluation of innovation efficiency require the development of tools to model their dissemination process within the industry. This paper presents a model of innovation diffusion based on physical approaches, describing stages of accelerating and decelerating growth. An exponential growth is described using a diffusion model, while a logarithmic one employs an electrical engineering model. The paper presents the correspondence of physical parameters with their economic counterpart: size of a company; characteristic of speed of information exchange between firms; company’s willingness to innovate; inter-firm influence and the breakthrough level of innovation. The theoretical model obtained was tested on historical data of innovation implementation in the fuel and energy complex, followed by adjustments of coefficients depending on the branch of innovation implementation. The developed model is applicable for describing the process of innovation dissemination in any industry in the country, as well as for investment and business planning in companies and decision-making on investments in innovation projects. When applied in industries with low levels of innovation activity, an increase in the level of high-tech production and the share of organizations implementing technological innovations is predicted. Using the example of Russia’s fuel and energy sector, rising in the technological level of enterprises and a decrease in import dependence are forecasted.