Abstract
Based on the tourism industry economic panel data, this research divides and measures the tourism industry’s economic resilience cycle in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) by constructing a counterfactual function and exploring the evolution of its Spatial-Temporal difference characteristics in the past 20 years. Estimation results show that three out of the four Recession–Recovery cycles of GBA have been characterized as “creative destruction”. Moreover, the economic resilience values and fluctuation trends of the individual tourism industries in the GBA are quite different. Additionally, the economic resilience of the urban tourism industry has changed from centralized to discrete, and the trend of economic resilience of the tourism industry has changed from low toughness to concentrated. This study expands the practice of resilience theory in the tourism industry economy, and it reveals the difference of tourism industry resilience in the metropolitan area system of GBA urban agglomeration from the perspective of industrial economic resistance and resilience.
Highlights
Reverse globalization has challenged the sustainable development of the regional tourism economy in a new way
This study explored a counterfactual function to measure the regional resilience of the tourism economy in the Greater Bay Area (GBA)
20 years—the economy was subjected to to more frequent external shocks that resulted in longer recessions
Summary
Reverse globalization has challenged the sustainable development of the regional tourism economy in a new way. The trade war between China and the United States has led to increasingly severe reverse globalization and even “temporary deglobalization”. China is accelerating the establishment of a “dual circulation” economic development pattern in which the domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while the international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement. As a new geographical unit for a country to participate in global competition and international division of labor, urban agglomeration inevitably takes place when. China’s new industrialization and new urbanization develop to a higher level [1]. It has become a core area with the highest vitality and potential in the current and future pattern of economic development [2]
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