The Economic Pressure Caused by Population Aging and Countermeasures in China

Abstract

The question of how to deal with the challenge of aging is of utmost importance to China’s modernization in the 21st century. In this paper, we use quantitative analysis and international comparisons, on the basis of research achievements recently made by the author for a National Social Sciences Foundation project, to reach the following conclusion: despite relatively long and rapid economic growth, extraordinarily fast aging of the population will impose enormous economic pressure on China in the first half of the 21st century, possibly weakening China’s rising stamina in the later stages. We demonstrate that we must act now to mitigate the coming economic pressure from aging, and that economic measures must play the primary role. At the same time, while continuing the fundamental national policy of birth planning, we must gradually relax and improve current fertility control policies at appropriate times and to appropriate extents. In a 2011 government work report, Premier Wen Jiabao proposed that we “persist in the fundamental national policy of birth planning, gradually improve policies, and promote long-term balanced demographic development.” This report provides a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the government policymakers to achieve the above objectives and accomplish the above tasks from the perspective of the coming economic pressure of population aging in China and its regulation in the future.