Quantitative Study of Coordination Between Population Aging and Economic Development in China from 1980 to 2050

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to scientifically understand the economic pressure of population aging in China by quantifying the coordination between population aging and economic development. We use the author’s AECI method and the most recent data from the United Nations, World Bank, and other authoritative institutions to perform a systematic, quantitative study. The results indicate that population aging in China has surpassed and will continue to markedly outstrip economic development from 1980 to 2050, and demonstrate that the extent of this outstripping, expressed by the AECI value, may peak in 2040 or so. The extent to which population aging will outstrip economic development will rank China relatively high among nations of this study for a long time, and China will be near the fore of the nations with similar levels of economic development. This incoordination is even more evident within many regions of China (including the majority of western regions). We also quantitatively analyze the necessity and feasibility of adjusting fertility policies to alleviate future economic pressure from population aging in China. The AECI method, which made it possible to both quantify and compare the economic pressure of population aging, is the key innovation of this paper.