The economic potential of district heating under climate neutrality: The case of Austria

Abstract

This paper focuses on the requirement of the Energy Efficiency Directive for assessing the potential of efficient heating and cooling. The paper describes the method for calculating the economic potential of efficient district heating (DH) in Austria under different scenarios, assuming the full decarbonisation of the heating sector by 2050. A spatially explicit approach is used to derive heat demand density maps, heat distribution costs and potential DH areas. The obtained areas are clustered, and depending on their potential spreads, up to four supply portfolios on the installed generation capacities are assessed in each cluster. While this method maintains the level of detail, it significantly reduces the number of required sensitivity analyses. Finally, the least cost portfolios of DH supply in each cluster are identified and compared with the costs of individual heat supply. The economic potential of DH by 2050 is calculated accordingly. The analyses revealed that the DH market share within DH areas is the main driver of DH competitiveness. Depending on the scenario, the economic DH potential varies between 13% and 50% of space and water heating demand in Austria. The extensive application of renewable gases in this sector was not economically feasible under any scenario.