THE ECONOMIC, ENERGY, AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE POLICY IN SOUTH KOREA

Niven Winchester,John M Reilly

doi:10.1142/s2010007819500106

Niven Winchester, John M Reilly

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https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007819500106

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Using an economy-wide model, we evaluate the impact of policies to meet South Korea’s Paris pledge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37% relative those under business as usual (BAU) in 2030. Simulated BAU emissions in 2030 are 840.8 million metric tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), indicating that economy-wide emissions should be constrained to 529.7 MtCO2e. Under South Korea’s Emissions Trading System (KETS) and fuel economy standards, a 2030 carbon price of $88/tCO2e is needed to meet this goal. Without considering benefits from avoided climate damages, these policies reduce 2030 GDP by $21.5 billion (1.0%) and consumer welfare by 8.1 billion (0.7%). Declines in sectoral production are largest for fossil-based energy sectors and chemical, rubber and plastic products, and iron and steel sectors.

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At the 2015 Paris Climate Conference — the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) — South Korea joined most other countries in signing an agreement to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, extending earlier commitments for reductions through 2020 to 2030
A summary of results for each scenario is presented in Table 3, with additional results reported in Table 4 (GHG emissions by gas), Table 5, Table 6, and Table 7
No country of any significance has sufficient objectives by this rating, hardly a surprise given that a variety of studies have shown that the Paris agreement is insufficient to achieve the 2 target

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Introduction

At the 2015 Paris Climate Conference — the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) — South Korea joined most other countries in signing an agreement to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, extending earlier commitments for reductions through 2020 to 2030. Nations that are parties to the Paris agreement are required to submit National Determined Contributions (NDCs) that outline future reductions in GHG emissions out to 2030.

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