Abstract
We adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest to 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions though careful consideration of opportunity costs is required.
Highlights
Vietnam is often said to be vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change
In order to estimate the economic impact of climate change for Vietnam it is necessary to first specify a baseline scenario that reflects future development trends, policies and priorities in the absence of climate change
The baseline provides a reasonable trajectory for growth and structural change of the economy for the period 2007–2050 upon which we can overlay the impacts of climate change
Summary
Vietnam is often said to be vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change Inundation from flooding events, sea level rise (SLR), and cyclone strike could displace large populations and damage or destroy capital including valuable transport and energy infrastructure [6,7,8,9]. Together, these characteristics mean that crucial economic sectors, i.e., agriculture, energy and infrastructure, are exposed to climate risks that could influence Vietnam’s long-term development prospects. Sector level impact channels include water, agriculture and hydropower [4], road infrastructure [6], and cyclones and storm surge [8] This article combines these sectoral impact channels to provide an economy-wide assessment of climate change for Vietnam.
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