Abstract
Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. It is believed that in many parts of the world, including the United States, much of the year-to-year variation in climate can be traced to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. In 1997-98 the world experienced a severe El Nino event and this was followed by a strong La Nina in 1998-99. This paper develops estimates of the economic consequences of such events on US agriculture using a stochastic economic model of the US agricultural sector. Both phases result in economic damages to US agriculture— a $1.5 to $1.7 billion loss for El Nino and a $2.2 to $6.5 billion loss for La Nina. The range in these damage estimates reflects assumptions concerning the relationship between yields and ENSO weather patterns and how farmers respond to these potential yield differentials.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
