The Eastern Slavic Population of Central Asia After the Collapse of the USSR: Ethno-Demographic Processes

Abstract

By the end of the Soviet period, Eastern Slavs (Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians) made up over one fifth of the population of Central Asia. In the USSR, Eastern Slavs were the leading ethnic group, playing the key role in the multinational state. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Eastern Slavs, in essence, became an ethnic minority. The new ethno-political situation had a negative impact on their natural increase, which dropped below simple reproduction level, whereas emigration from Central Asia showed an abrupt rise. As a result, the absolute number of Eastern Slavs decreased twofold, and their relative number nearly threefold. Before the collapse of the USSR, their share in this region was 1/4 to 1/5; by the mid-2010s it dropped to 1/12 to 1/13. In Kazakhstan, the decrease was much slower than in other Central Asian republics, so Kazakhstan has become the place where three quarters of Central Asian Eastern Slavs concentrate. This republic therefore has a good chance to remain the most “Slavic” in the region, whereas in other republics of Central Asia the future preservation of the Slavic population is problematic.