The Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications

Abstract

Abstract Heretofore it has been widely accepted that the contributions of W. E. Cooke in 1906 represented the first works related to the explicit treatment of uncertainty in weather forecasts. Recently, however, it has come to light that at least some aspects of the rationale for quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts were discussed prior to 1900 and that probabilities and odds were included in some weather forecasts formulated more than 200 years ago. An effort to summarize these new historical insights, as well as to clarify the precise nature of the contributions made by various individuals to early developments is this area, appears warranted. The overall purpose of this paper is to extend and clarify the early history of probability forecasts. Highlights of the historical review include 1) various examples of the use of qualitative and quantitative probabilities or odds in forecasts during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, 2) a brief discussion in 1890 of the economic component of the ration...