The Dynamics of Hydrological Extremes under the Highest Emission Climate Change Scenario in the Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change and its impact on surface runoff in the upper Blue Nile basin and sub-basins have been widely studied in future climate projections. However, the impact on extreme flow events of rivers is barely investigated discretely. In this paper, the change in temperature and rainfall under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5) and its impact on the high flow and low flow simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2012) in major watersheds of the Lake Tana Basin has been evaluated by comparing the baseline period (1971–2000) with the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070), and 2080s (2071–2100). The high flows of watersheds were selected by the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) model, whereas the low-flow watersheds were selected by the 7-day sustained mean annual minimum flow method. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 °C to 5.17 °C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. The increment in minimum temperature is also more prominent in the 2080s and it is expected to rise by 4.75 °C. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. The highest increments are expected by 22.37%, 25.58%, and 29.75% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, whereas the projected highest decrease in rainfall dictates the decrease of 6.42%, 7.11%, and 9.26% in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Due to changes in temperature and rainfall, the low flow is likely to decrease by 8.39%, 8.33%, 6.21%, and 5.02% in Ribb, Gumara, Megech, and Gilgel Abay watersheds, respectively, whereas the high flow of Gilgel Abay, Megech, Gumara, and Ribb watersheds are expected to increase by 13.94%, 12.16%, 10.90%, and 10.24%, respectively, every 30 years.