Abstract
Background: COVID-19 pandemic still expanding across the world and continuing at modest pattern In Basrah. Objective: To further elaborate on COVID-19 epidemic in Basrah province and document the changing dynamic of the disease. Methods: two sources were used for obtaining data in this study. The first is an excel sheet containing information on 736 cases covering age, gender, residence, travel history, comorbidity and fate, which is obtained from The Department of Public Health in Basrah. The second is the daily numbers of new cases (also 736) obtained from the daily communiqué of the Ministry of Health. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS-version 20) and Excel programmes were used for statistical analysis. Results: The mean age was 35.5±18.9 (for males=35.6+19.0 and for females=35.5±18.8), the median was 34 years (males =34 and females =33). The incidence rate was higher in older age groups, females and three districts (Basrah city, Al-Hartha and Al-Mdaina). The case fatality was within the international figures and significantly predicted by older age, travel history and presence of co-morbidity. The epidemic curve is moderate, fluctuant and does not help yet in predicting an exit from the epidemic. Conclusion: The epidemic of COVID-19 in Basrah is moderate, cluster in transmission and changing in time but is unpredictable. Key words: COVID-19, Case fatality ratio, incidence rate
Highlights
C OVID-19 still represents a threat to the health of the population in Basrah despite the efforts to contain the spread of infection at community level
The incidence rate was higher in older age groups, females and three districts (Basrah city, Al-Hartha and Al-Mdaina)
In order to update the epidemiological situation in Basrah and keep up with further development, we present further details on the characteristics of the affected persons and specific outcomes, eg., incidence rate, case fatality ratios and others, as of May 20, 2020
Summary
C OVID-19 still represents a threat to the health of the population in Basrah despite the efforts to contain the spread of infection at community level. The epidemiology of the disease is evolving and the complete picture is not complete yet at local and global levels.[1,2] In our previous article[1] on COVID-19 in Basrah which covered cases reported from February 24 to April 10, 2020 we stated that the scale of COVID-19 epidemic was modest in Basrah and may continue as such for a period of time. The characteristics of detected cases might have changed as active surveillance revealed a tangible number of asymptomatic contacts. The measures against the COVID-19 epidemic in the foreseeable future may need extensive reconsideration to encompass health aspects and the consequences of the epidemic on population living and country economics.[3] In order to update the epidemiological situation in Basrah and keep up with further development, we present further details on the characteristics of the affected persons and specific outcomes, eg., incidence rate, case fatality ratios and others, as of May 20, 2020. COVID-19 pandemic still expanding across the world and continuing at modest scale in Basrah
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