The Dynamics of Agenda Convergence and the Paradox of Competitiveness in Presidential Campaigns

Abstract

The mass media’s representation of campaign discourse influences whether voters have the opportunity to scrutinize the candidates’ issue priorities and policy proposals. But it is not clear whether candidate and media issue emphases are more or less similar at an election’s most consequential moments—when it is competitive. In a study of the 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, the author finds that as the polls narrow, the media are less likely to reflect candidate discourse. Paradoxically, voters are deprived of an accurate representation of candidate dialogue when they need it most, with media behavior making it difficult for citizens to cast informed ballots in close contests. The results also show that whether the media serve as a conduit for, or filter of, candidate messages depends on a variety of factors, especially electoral context.