The Dynamic Evolution of the Structure of an Urban Housing Investment Niche Network and Its Underlying Mechanisms: A Case Study of 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in China

Abstract

With the growth of urban agglomerations, the spatial diffusion of housing investment is clear; however, little research has been carried out to address its network characteristics and underlying mechanisms of influence. Using data on 35 large and medium-sized cities, this paper applies niche theory to housing investment, constructing a housing investment niche index that includes resources, the housing market, the social economy, and policy. The purpose is to study the characteristics of the network structure and its mechanisms of influence based on an improved gravity model and a temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). Supported by the analysis of the network structure, we find that the node degree within the network is low, the network density exhibits an inverted “V” shape, and the network level suggests the existence of a “rich cities club”. According to the local network clustering analysis, the cities are divided into three clusters: the Yangtze River Delta region, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and the central and eastern regions. Furthermore, analysis of the endogeneity in the structure reveals that there is a hierarchy of cities with high economic development levels, which makes it difficult to establish an investment network with strong relationships. The effects of the attributes are consistent with the predictions of location theory and new economic geography theory. The external network effects conform to the law of the general gravity model. Our research provides insights into the ways in which the misplaced competition in housing investment between cities in a region and the flow of production factors can be reasonably guided.