Distinct responses of PM2.5 and O3 extremes to persistence of weather conditions in eastern China

Abstract

Climate change may aggravate air pollution through altering emissions, ventilation, chemical production, and deposition. Under a warming climate, persistent weather patterns are likely to increase in both number and intensity, yet their implications on future air quality have been less explored. Here we use ground-level observations of air pollutants and meteorological reanalysis dataset to explore how persistence of weather conditions would affect extremes of wintertime PM2.5 and summertime O3 in China. Associated changes in the shapes of their distributions are discussed also with contrasting weather conditions. As air stagnation days persist, median summertime O3 significantly increases, with 0.07, 0.12 and 0.19 standard deviation per day (about 1.97, 3.12 and 4.63 ppb per day) for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions, respectively. As high temperature days continue, significant increases in median (about 0.31 ppb per day) and 90th percentile (about 0.78 ppb per day) of summertime O3 is found only in the YRD region, although the highest probability of O3 extreme (90th percentile) is identified on the last day of four-day high temperature events for both the BTH and YRD regions. In contrast, persistent stagnation causes a significant increase in the 90th percentile of PM2.5 of about 17.87 and 10.88 μg/m3 per day for BTH and YRD regions, rather than the median. Stagnation events lasting for five, four and five days are the best indicators for PM2.5 extreme (90th percentile) in the BTH, YRD and PRD regions, respectively. Analysis on contrasting monthly weather conditions suggests that summertime O3 extreme is amplified by higher mean daily maximum air temperature (T) in the BTH region and co-occurrences of high T and stagnation in the YRD region, while wintertime PM2.5 extreme is significantly amplified by stronger stagnation. These results suggest that megacities with relatively high emissions are more vulnerable to a hotter and more stable future.