The Durability of Managed Rivalry: Iran's Relations with Russia and the Saudi Dimension

Abstract

Russia's Middle East policy faces a dilemma. On the one hand, Moscow maintains close, although frequently terse, ties with Iran, playing an important role in Iran's nuclear program and even using its position in the United Nations to shield Iran from harsh sanctions. In return, Moscow profits from the sales of arms and nuclear expertise, participates in Iran's energy sector, and may establish valuable cooperation on gas exports, both being obvious suppliers to the lucrative Western European market. On the other hand, Russia is also seeking to strengthen ties with Iran's neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, many of whom see Tehran as the major threat to any nonproliferation regime in the region and recognize that Russian cooperation has increased the likelihood that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons. The impact on Russia's relationship with Saudi Arabia may be especially important to planners in Moscow. Saudi Arabia appears to be an increasingly willing client for Russian arms (and possibly also nuclear expertise), and Russia may value close relations with the next biggest oil exporter in the world. In the present study, we examine Russia's recent relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia and assess Russia's strategic position regarding the two countries. At the current time, Russia, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and the primary source of technical cooperation with Tehran on the nuclear issue, is at the center of developments in the Middle East. How Moscow assesses its position in the Middle East, and whether it ultimately wishes to prioritize Riyadh or Tehran, could be central to the future stability of the region.