The Drift Burst Hypothesis

Abstract

The Drift Burst Hypothesis postulates the existence of short-lived locally explosive trends in the price paths of financial assets. The recent US equity and treasury flash crashes can be viewed as two high profile manifestations of such dynamics, but we argue that drift bursts of varying magnitude are an expected and regular occurrence in financial markets that can arise through established mechanisms such as feedback trading. At a theoretical level, we show how to build drift bursts into the continuous-time Ito semi-martingale model in such a way that the fundamental arbitrage-free property is preserved. We then develop a non-parametric test statistic that allows for the identification of drift bursts from noisy high-frequency data. We apply this methodology to a comprehensive set of tick data and show that drift bursts form an integral part of the price dynamics across equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities. We find that the majority of identified drift bursts are accompanied by strong price reversals and these can therefore be regarded as “flash crashes” that span brief periods of severe market disruption without any material longer term price impacts.